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|In an effort to come up with an alternative, I’ve been fiddling with a modified points system that includes point penalties for hits allowed. I’ll provide discussion of the methodology at the end of the post, so scroll down for that. But here’s what I’ve come up with: IP: +7.4|
The only differences between this system and FanGraphs Points are the points attributed to innings (previously +5), hits (previously 0), and home runs (previously -13).
The pitchers who get the biggest bump moving to this new system are those who have an ERA that is substantially better than their FIP: Justin Verlander (+108 pts), Jared Weaver (+87 pts), Josh Beckett (+84 pts), etc. And the pitchers hurt the most are (mostly) those who have had FIP’s smaller than their ERA: Chris Carpenter (-47 pts), Jeff Francis (-65 pts), Jake Westbrook (-63 pts), etc. So, what we’re doing in this system is rewarding pitchers for getting “lucky” and penalizing pitchers for getting “unlucky.”