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05:37 PM on 10/05/12 
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ToMyBetterAngel
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Tempe, AZ
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The way I see it, Turkey's leaders have probably already decided whether they want to go to war with Syria or not.

If they do, they are right now just looking for some kind of incident or chain of incidents to escalate tensions and attack.

If they don't, they would respond to these stray mortar strikes with more restraint. And who's to even say the Syrian regime is the one lobbing mortars? If I were the rebels I sure as hell would lob a few shells Turkey's way to try to get them involved. It's probably pretty hard to determine which faction is actually firing these mortars.

The thing that drives me nuts about this is that it is all probably following a very clear script. I would say pretty confidently that NATO already has this whole situation pretty mapped out with contingency plans for any given scenario. Russia, China, and Iran obviously support Syria, so Turkey is acting as America's proxy. If the United States were to attack Syria (Russia's proxy), that would provoke an immediate response from Russia and/or China.

So instead Turkey will probably use these mortar attacks as an excuse to escalate hostilities. I guarantee you if Turkey truly didn't want war with Syria they would find a way to deescalate tensions. They wouldn't be shelling Syria for three days straight, trying to provoke a response.

Sometime in the next few days or weeks there will probably be some sort of incident that causes Turkey to go to war with Syria. This incident might not be planned directly, but they are waiting for something just big enough to justify going to war. Because as I mentioned earlier, the decision to go to war or not has probably already been made. But you can't just declare ware out of the blue, the people wouldn't accept that.

So a situation that would happen would be something like another Turkish plane flying questionably close to Syrian airspace, and then being shot down. Turkey will respond with a disproportionate counterattack that will leave Syria no choice but to retaliate and then it's pretty much on.

But where does it go from there? What is the end game here? I'm definitely no expert but from what I understand Turkey is far more powerful than Syria. So does Russia sit by idly as their proxy is destroyed? I don't know, maybe.

And I think the ultimate goal of NATO and western powers here is to further isolate Iran. Remove its closest ally and force it back to the bargaining table in a weakened position. Ultimately I think the Iran/Israel situation is the conflict influencing most other events in the middle east right now.

All of this is of course based on my perception, but it seems like common sense to me if you think about it. World governments probably don't do things spur of the moment, and have these scenarios well planned out with contingency plans for almost any given scenario. There is always an end goal or objective to attain.

That's what kind of makes me frustrated. It feels like all of these hostilities and shellings are just a show for the common man. Building up a case for war so that the average joe with little understanding of foreign policy can wrap his mind around things. "Oh Syria attacked Turkey with mortars and now Turkey is declaring war to defend itself? That sounds kind of reasonable I guess." No, the world is much much more complicated than that and governments act with more foresight than to do something as drastic as declaring war.

The thing that most worries me about this round of hostilities though, as with almost any proxy conflict is the possibility that it could ignite a wider war. Whether that includes a few surrounding countries, the whole of the middle east, or even draws in major opposing powers like Russia and the United States.

With the world economy still in the trash, Israel threatening to attack Iran, unrest in the wider middle east, China and Japan skirmishing in the south China sea, I think the last thing the world needs is a large proxy war.
05:50 PM on 10/05/12 
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ToMyBetterAngel
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I like your name.
01:52 AM on 10/12/12 
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ToMyBetterAngel
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Russia or China would not be directly involved in any action in Syria. They don't want a war with the United States/the West over some irrelevant country in shambles. Cool conspiracy theories though.

I think people throw around "conspiracy theory" a bit too easily.

What about my post seems like a conspiracy theory to you? I mean granted I could be wrong on some issues here but I could just as easily call your oversimplified post ignorant for not seeing that there is a larger middle east power play going on here that involves Iran, Israel, Russia and NATO. This isn't just "Syria bombed Turkey so Turkey has to defend itself". There's a lot more going on here influencing events.

I think I tried to get too specific in my original post. My main point was the situation is much more complicated than a casual observer would surmise. I think the United States, Russia, Israel, and Iran all have a keen interest in what happens here. I don't think that's a conspiracy theory.

And I don't think it's likely Russia or the US will get involved directly either. That was my whole point about it being a proxy conflict. But as for Syria being irrelevant, what about the Russian naval base in Syria that is Moscow's only real foothold in the middle east? What about the fact that Syria is Iran's closest ally? What about Syria's chemical and biological weapons? What about the potential for massive sectarian spillover into neighboring countries and beyond?

I will admit the situation might not be as complex and specific as I made it seem in my original post but it is certainly not as simple and "irrelevant" as you claim.



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