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05:14 PM on 02/20/13 
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Thanks a lot Drew...

When do you feel decline phase is for a position like CB Doug? Sherman's on the rise, Revis is obviously closer to decline.

Revis is older, but unless the injury bug continues, I don't think a decline will come for a few years. For Charles Woodson it happened around 34, for Champ Bailey it was at 33 or 34.

Obviously those two players are special cases, but so are Revis and Sherman. It's probably best to compare the best to the best.

For Ty Law it was around 32. Ronde Barber was around 32 or 33 as a cornerback, though he's remade himself as a safety.

It's safe to say that Revis is at least three years away from serious decline unless injuries occur. Not that this really pertains to this conversation, but I have a feeling that Sherman could decline earlier (more Ty Law to his game) than Revis.
05:16 PM on 02/20/13 
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Bringing my last two posts over.


Let's compare them statistically. 2011 Revis vs. 2012 Sherman.




So Sherman played more snaps and received one more regular season target. Sherman also allowed four more receptions, 124 more yards, but only 18 more YAC and one more touchdown. Sherman also picked off four more passes. Sherman had a lower QB rating again, more cover snaps per target (more is better), more yards per cover snap (more is worse) and less cover snaps per reception (more is better).



(this includes playoff stats, so numbers will be bloated in favor of Revis)

Sherman allows more receptions per target, allows more yards per reception, and gave up a 56 yard pass vs. a 53 yard pass for Revis. Both had two receptions allowed over 50 yards. Sherman had one less pass defensed during the regular season.

Overall, it's almost exactly even, but Sherman is more of the ball hawk. The difference between those stats are minute other than the INTs and yards allowed. People dismiss interceptions, but Sherman had 2x the amount of interceptions with only one more target during the regular season.

By the eye test, I'd put Revis' prime (2009) over Sherman (2012), but I don't think we're talking about that, we're talking about now. Revis is coming off a torn ACL, and as easy as it was for Peterson, Welker, etc. to come back from that injury, it's still a concern. Going into next season, I'd probably rather have Sherman on the Seahawks than Revis on the Jets, but Sherman is helped out by the Seattle defense.

I'd say it's even.
05:16 PM on 02/20/13 
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So:

Sherman:
+More snaps, less targets
+four more interceptions
+lower quarterback rating
+more cover snaps per target
-56 yard long
-two 50+ yard receptions

Revis:
+less receptions
+less yards
+less YAC
+less TDs
+less yards per cover snap
+more cover snaps per reception
+less receptions per target
+less yards per reception
-53 yard long
-two 50+ yard receptions
+more passes defensed

But, like I said before those four more INTs are huge, especially when Sherman only received one more target.
05:17 PM on 02/20/13 
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Revis doesn't play with safety help over the top.

What, in your mind, does this even mean?
05:23 PM on 02/20/13 
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Revis doesn't get help from safeties, he plays on an island, you know Revis Island. Seahawks play primarily cover 1 so on deep route he gets help defending the pass with a safety instead of 1on1 like Revis.

That's such a myth, though. The Jets don't play a straight cover zero (no one does) with two safeties playing man in the box. Usually either Landry or Bell will be playing over the top helping out (and that's typically Cromartie).

It's the same with the Seahawks, except Seattle has better safeties with more defined roles. Chancellor plays in the box and Thomas is helping out over the top (typically Browner).
05:35 PM on 02/20/13 
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I think what he's trying to say if revis played with bad-mediocre safeties who didn't do much so he did most of the work.

That's not what he said though. He said Revis played on an island with no safety help over the top which is not true. That would mean the Jets would be blitzing on every single play. In 2011, they were 12th in the league in blitz percentage.
06:10 PM on 02/20/13 
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What. About him.
06:27 PM on 02/20/13 
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Best corner in the league, ex-Bill great, obviously.

Best cover-2 corner in the league? Maybe. But he has Charles Tillman to fight for that title.

I just feel like comparing a cover-2/slot guy to an outside man guy is basically like comparing a running back to a wide receiver, or a tight end to a wide receiver or a 5-tech DE to a 7-tech DE. They're just different positions.

Winfield is asked to cover about 1/6th of the field, whereas Sherman and Revis have to cover 1/2 of it. Winfield is great at what he does, and the run defense aspect of it makes it just as tough or nearly as touch as Sherman and Revis trailing WRs all over the field, but it's just entirely different.

I don't think you can properly compare them. I think the argument at hand is best shutdown corner, and Winfield is not a shutdown corner, nor has he ever been.
01:59 PM on 02/22/13 
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odds are he's a second or third rounder anyways

Nah, he'll likely be a first rounder. Possibly second rounder, but that would mean no running backs are going first round, which has literally never happened in the entire history of the draft.
05:19 PM on 03/04/13 
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God that'd be such a Buffalo move; but, more likely it's just an uneventful top 5 picks. I think Oakland would be the most likely to make a move if they wanted Geno


I think its smart for them too; they had the space to work with, and if they lose Albert after this year, at least Alex Smith doesn't die in the process. Plus, they still could draft Joeckel if they wanted, but, that's unlikely. Keeping Bowe was key, even if it costs them a decent chunk of change. Without him, that offense dies.


hahaha, this is the time of year, post-combine, where all the "x will go in the first round" stories crop up from agents leaking the "buzz" they are hearing. If those were all true, we'd need about 90 1st rounders

After getting Decastro in the fall last year, I'd love this...but that is WAY too far a fall for him. It'd mean like 16 team doctors said "fuck that" to his condition, which would actually worry me

I'm basically expecting the best S/LB available to get drafted there, with the lone exception being if Patterson falls, maybe they'd take him to bolster their WR corps

You know what's funny about my argument for why the Chiefs won't take Joeckel No. 1? The Patriots have done both.

-I said KC wouldn't franchise Albert to have him play guard. -- Patriots did that in 2011 with Logan Mankins.
-I said KC wouldn't draft Joeckel No. 1 overall to sit for a year behind Albert, if that was the plan -- Patriots did that with Solder/Light in 2011

Of course, the Patriots were in a different position with both moves. They already had a team that could compete (and eventually went to the Super Bowl) and they were picking at No. 17, not No. 1.

I still think it makes no sense for the Chiefs to pick an OL No. 1. The choices would be to move Albert to guard (and pay him $10 million? No thanks), draft Joeckel or Fisher to sit for a year (makes no sense since both players are ready now) or draft Warmack/Cooper (drafting a guard No. 1 overall is stupid).

Every move the Chiefs have made this offseason has been with a win-now mentality. It would defeat the purpose of trading for Alex Smith, signing Bowe and franchising Albert if they were just going to take the No. 1 overall pick and take someone that will not contribute in 2013.

The Chiefs really aren't that far away. They only need a couple pieces to have a pretty good shot at the playoffs. Biggest needs are a penetrating interior defender and cornerback. I think Star or Sharrif are more than worthy of the No. 1 pick, and Milliner really wouldn't be that big of a stretch either. It's a weak class, anyone that's graded as a Top 10 pick could go No. 1.

The idea I see floating around that I also hate is picking a pass rusher. All that player would be is a situational third down blitzer, since they won't want to take Houston or Hali off the field on third down.
08:49 PM on 03/04/13 
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Of course their preference is to trade back. That's everyone's preference in a draft that's weak at the top.

You can get similar talent to the top ten in the twenties. Just weak as hell at the top.

Hali and Houston are already on the roster at OLB and they can hold it down, but Houston is not a three down player. He gets after the passer, but Jordan can do many different things - cover and blitz.

If Albert is set at LT, they won't go for a tackle. He doesn't want to play inside. He will bitch and moan if they kick him inside. No one is going to give up a first round pick for Albert, so I don't see a trade happening there.

Shariff Floyd does make a lot of sense, but they've spent so many top picks on defensive linemen over the years...

Houston's one of the best cover 3-4 OLBs in the NFL. Jordan would be better i(he'll come in immediately as the NFL's best cover 3-4 OLB), but Houston is definitely a three-down player. Played the third most coverage snaps in the NFL among 3-4 OLBs last season. Solid against the run too. Just a really good all-around player.
08:21 AM on 03/05/13 
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You think the sadness is your ally, but you merely adopted the sad. I was born in it, molded by it.


I'm interested in seeing how these 4-3 teams view Jordan. I'm really hoping he falls to the Browns. Hell, I'd even consider trading up to Oakland's spot to ensure it. I just love how dynamic he is at the 3-4 OLB spot.

As for the Chiefs, Floyd makes the most sense for them now. I could still see an outside shot of them taking Joeckel and then trading Albert or letting him play out his franchise tag at guard.


Damn the Chiefs are stupid. No way does Bowe deserve the same money as Vincent Jackson. It's good news for Wallace, who may be able to pull the same or more from a team like the Dolphins or Browns. It sucks to be the Giants right now. They're going to have to shell out a lot to retain Nicks and Cruz.

Dion Jordan will be heavily coveted by 4-3 teams too. He can play the Von Miller role -- SLB in base and DE in sub. He's better than Miller in coverage, worse in pass rush and run defense to put it simply.
06:18 AM on 03/06/13 
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If the No. 1 pick stays up in the air, there will be first-round mocks that don't get a single pick right this year.
05:00 PM on 06/11/13 
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doug could reach out and TOUCH tebow right now, you guys

I should have done that. Maybe tomorrow. Or Thursday.
05:03 PM on 06/11/13 
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For the record, I talked to Kyle Arrington rather than Tebow. I had no interest in being in that massive scrum and it's hilarious that Tebow gave a statement and didn't even answer questions. I have a certain cubicle at Gillette and it was stolen today because of Tebow. That is what I'll remember from today. Tebow stole my cubicle.

Belichick's press conference was amazing by the way. So many new york writers and TV guys thinking they could "beat" Belichick. Ha. I almost asked about Brandon Spikes midway through it.
 



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