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06:27 AM on 02/15/09 
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benn10
what!?
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what basis do you have for thinking that the recession is going to end that quickly? i'm honestly curious why you think that as it is most definitely not the opinion held by most analysts, especially considering that most people will be quick to tell you that we've been in a recession since 2007 or at least 2008.

Seeing first hand every day in my job (i travel weekly around the country from bank to bank reviewing their loan portfolios), I am going to have to disagree strongly with thinking that anything will rebound by next year. Again, I hope I'm wrong, for the good of the economy, but the fact is, there are still a LOT of companies that have yet to close and many many mortgages that have yet to reset. Companies closing means more people out of work, means even more people who can't afford their homes. I don't think that a tax benefit is going to be enough to save a good many of these people/organizations. We better hope for a miracle to be contained within this stimulus package if we think it's going to miraculously put tons of people back to work in such a short time span. I just don't buy it, but I hope I'm wrong. My prediction is that this is going to last at least 5-7 more years. Some things take time to work themselves out.


(Oh and don't even get me started on the TARP funds...)

Thanks for taking my words out of context. I never said that the recession will end quickly. I said that there was a possibility.

And when you say that "this is going to last 5-7 more years", I hope you're not referring to the recession. Recessions never last that long, unless go back to the great depression, in which case you're suggesting that we're entering into a depression.
06:36 AM on 02/15/09 
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.invisible ink.
honey bunny that's the funny thing
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Thanks for taking my words out of context. I never said that the recession will end quickly. I said that there was a possibility.

And when you say that "this is going to last 5-7 more years", I hope you're not referring to the recession. Recessions never last that long, unless go back to the great depression, in which case you're suggesting that we're entering into a depression.

Sorry, I don't think I was taking your words out of context. I understood that it was your opinion that there was a chance that the recession would end next year, but I'm still trying to understand why you think that it's a possibility.

And yes, I would say that this is either going to be the worst recession in history, or another depression (more likely). If you take into consideration the high amount of mortgages that have not yet even begun to reset plus those who are losing their jobs, then we're looking at another few years of this unless of course all these people are able to get out of their loans and get fabulous new gigs before the shit hits the fan for them. I'm cynical and don't see that happening with any immediacy.
07:29 AM on 02/15/09 
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SLOWPOKE LOPEZ
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i'm no economics major or whatever, so i don't know just the ramifications this would have, but all this money thats been spent to bail out banks and stimulate the economy would be nearly enough to pay off every mortgage in america.
no mortgage debt for anybody...now that would've stimulated something i'd think.
11:46 AM on 02/15/09 
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TranslateTheNam
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oh good, a chance. i'd challenge the the second sentence, but the lack of foundation in the first sentence tells me it's not necessarily worth the time.



oh hey, lou dobbs - http://www.factcheck.org/askfactchec...de_a_52 .html



You'll notice how that article briefly defends taking CDBG funds and then runs right into the fact that they were eligible for NSP funds but never acted to acquire them, yet. Mostly because ACORN received over 17.2 million from 11/08-01/09 alone. ACORN is in the CDBG's pocket, deep. They are a left wing lobbyist organization with they're own agenda. It doesn't matter where the funds are funneled on paper, ACORN will use it to they're liking.
12:34 PM on 02/15/09 
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nfgrocker16
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It's a run on, but it definitely gets the point across. I'm kind of disappointed that the Democrats are shoving this down our throats. We're going to be paying a lot more taxes.

Just never forget, there's life after death... and taxes.

And I think you need to stop complaining about taxes. Do you even make enough money a year that this will effect you? I doubt it.
01:25 PM on 02/15/09 
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saysmydoctor
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You'll notice how that article briefly defends taking CDBG funds and then runs right into the fact that they were eligible for NSP funds but never acted to acquire them, yet. Mostly because ACORN received over 17.2 million from 11/08-01/09 alone. ACORN is in the CDBG's pocket, deep. They are a left wing lobbyist organization with they're own agenda. It doesn't matter where the funds are funneled on paper, ACORN will use it to they're liking.
This isn't serious, right?
02:11 PM on 02/15/09 
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asmolitor
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You obviously haven't taken any Econ classes. Business cycles are unpredictable. You can't give concrete proof that this recession will carry on longer than next year.

I'm thinking that there's a chance that the economy will rebound by next year, entering a new business cycle. What will happen if this "stimulus" is distributed if we're no longer in a recession?

didn't even have to work for that one, nice.

as for the econ classes, i've taken quite a few seeing as its my major.

whereas you, on the other hand, deny the effects of the new deal, are conservative only when it's convenient, and post fox news links arguing that obama's turning our economy socialist (and subsequently start threads about it that get locked for complete idiocy).
02:28 PM on 02/15/09 
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saysmydoctor
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Conservatism is hardly convenient.
02:46 PM on 02/15/09 
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asmolitor
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Conservatism is hardly convenient.

hence my point.
03:49 PM on 02/15/09 
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asmolitor
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i'm no economics major or whatever, so i don't know just the ramifications this would have, but all this money thats been spent to bail out banks and stimulate the economy would be nearly enough to pay off every mortgage in america.
no mortgage debt for anybody...now that would've stimulated something i'd think.

http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/09s1152.pdf

no, unless we've spent around 12 trillion that no one was aware of. for comparison, total government spending in the fiscal year 2008 was around 5.2 trillion.

regardless, there should be plans released on wednesday dealing with public mortgages - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1234...ogl enews_wsj
05:02 PM on 02/15/09 
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asmolitor
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for future reference as we head into spring: "Crude Oil is getting cheaper - so why isn't gas?"

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=100733852
06:10 PM on 02/15/09 
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Machu505
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didn't even have to work for that one, nice.

as for the econ classes, i've taken quite a few seeing as its my major.

whereas you, on the other hand, deny the effects of the new deal, are conservative only when it's convenient, and post fox news links arguing that obama's turning our economy socialist (and subsequently start threads about it that get locked for complete idiocy).

Pwn'd.
06:27 PM on 02/15/09 
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saysmydoctor
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Albany NY
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for future reference as we head into spring: "Crude Oil is getting cheaper - so why isn't gas?"

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=100733852
Because the uninformed public is uninformed and will pay the price regardless because they don't know any better.

Am I warm, cold?
06:51 PM on 02/15/09 
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asmolitor
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Because the uninformed public is uninformed and will pay the price regardless because they don't know any better.

Am I warm, cold?

warm to an extent, though i think it's more a refinery-minded issue than a consumer information one. plus, unless you have a personal refinery in your backyard with fitted pipelines, there's not much say you can have in terms of pricing - haha.
06:57 PM on 02/15/09 
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asmolitor
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You'll notice how that article briefly defends taking CDBG funds and then runs right into the fact that they were eligible for NSP funds but never acted to acquire them, yet. Mostly because ACORN received over 17.2 million from 11/08-01/09 alone. ACORN is in the CDBG's pocket, deep. They are a left wing lobbyist organization with they're own agenda. It doesn't matter where the funds are funneled on paper, ACORN will use it to they're liking.


Faulty Logic


Boehner and Vitter commit two logical fallacies. Their argument has the form:
  1. The stimulus bill provides funding for redeveloping neighborhoods.
  2. ACORN does work in redeveloping neighborhoods.
  3. Therefore the stimulus bill provides funding for ACORN.
That's an example of what philosophers call the undistributed middle fallacy. It's a common mistake; in May 2008, we caught Sen. John McCain making a similar logical blunder. But Boehner and Vitter compound their error by treating different terms as if they had the same meaning. ACORN does indeed work in redeveloping neighborhoods, but the work that it does is not the same sort of work for which NSP provides funding. By pretending as if the two are the same, Boehner and Vitter commit the fallacy of equivocation.

We're accustomed to seeing logical fallacies in political arguments. But working two of them into a single argument is unusually bad logic.



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